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Lies, damned lies and statistics
13 October 2005
A short while back I got one of those pieces of common Internet gossip in my email box, circulated by someone who forwarded it without actually checking to see if it was true or just the usual slush of lies, bad numbers, fantasy and rumour.
That's the problem with email: it makes it so easy to continue the life cycle of garbage. And despite the power we have at our fingertips, few of us actually bother to check out the details or do the research on whether or not something is true. Which, of course, is why companies find itt so easy to mislead us with advertising.
Recipients are prone to forward this material because most of this tripe is sensational enough it's either exciting or interesting enough to make our normally mundane lives brighten a bit. So we help perpetuate the morass of urban legends and sometimes outright lies that zing around the Net daily.
Forwarding such emails without taking time to research them first and confirm their validity merely keep the garbage spewing online. Forwarding rumours, urban myths and misleading figures does no one any credit. It merely perpetuates the Net as a source of disinformation. Intelligent people can - and should - do better.
Here's what she was sending out. Keep in mind that this is mostly Internet slush, not fact (so do not copy this part and send it to friends because, as I explain below, it's garbage)...
Well, even a mathematically-challenged reader would see the number "80 million" guns in Canada and wonder. That's almost three guns for every man, woman and child in this country. Or for the 26 percent of Canadians who actually own guns, that means about ten guns per gun owner. We're crazy at times, but not nearly that bad!
Let's take a look at this piece and dissect it so we know exactly how bad it is... this is an exercise anyone can do, with very little effort and a few minutes on Google...
First, this email is not about Canadian statistics. That's pretty obvious if you think about it for any more than a nanosecond.
I dug online a bit and discovered (with a very simple search query) the text was taken from an obviously pro-NRA opinion column about AMERICAN physicians, and presented originally on what appears to be a right-wing-religious American political site. The original author was columnist Nathan Tabor. In it, he also writes, "It's time for Liberals to go out and buy a gun." That pretty much sums up the column, but that line never gets copied when his other figures are spread around. That's the insidious part of this trash: it's subliminal.
Simply changing the words America to Canada makes it ludicrous, but people are still passing it around. And the numbers presented are in many instances simply wrong.
Second, the US Census indicates there are 12 million people working in health care in the USA. The number of active physicians is 770,900, plus 40,800 doctors of osteopathy, for a total of 811,700 (plus 2.2 million nurses). That's 16 percent more than the columnist reported. (NB: the AMA has 690,000 physicians in its membership, but the latest CDC report lists 853,187 physicians - almost 22 per cent more than indicated).
If you check the National Safety Organization site you'll see that, yes, accidental deaths by firearms in the USA in 2002 were low (762) there were also 243 “undetermined” deaths by firearm for a potential total of 1,005. However, there were more than 17,000 deliberate cases of death through self-harm with firearms (more than half of all suicides in the USA), and more than 11,000 deaths through assault by firearm (more than half of all such deaths in the USA). So that means firearms are involved in more than 28,000 deaths in the USA every year.
See also Wrongful Diagnosis site for a list of deaths in the USA by reason, percentage of total deaths and per-capita. A little math shows the ratio of death by medical misadventure to firearms is really 3.39 to 1, not 9,000 to 1 as the writer of that bit of absurdity suggests.
And keep in mind that the huge majority of deaths by firearm were DELIBERATE, not accidental, as the majority of deaths by medical misadventure are. I would suggest the ratio of homicides by medical misadventure to be minuscule (less than 1%) compared to that of homicide by firearm (almost 17,000 per year!). Also keep in mind that 33.6 million Americans get admitted to hospital every year , too.
The National Institute of Medicine of the National Academies, by the way, has a much lower estimate in its figures for death by “medical misadventure” – as low as 44,000 - less than half that estimated in the other reports. It's still high, but it indicates not everyone agrees on how to classify the cause of death.
On the other hand, the writer reports 120,000 deaths in the USA by medical misadventure, while the actual figure is 98,000 (see Wrongful Diagnosis), a 22% inflation of the real numbers, and almost triple what the National Institute estimates (this form of death is also sometimes listed as "therapeutic" misadventure.)
According to a list of causes of death in Canada in 1992 there were 154 (74 men, 80 women) deaths by “medical misadventure” in Canada that year. If you add up the deaths by firearm in 1992 (178 men, 69 women – total 247) and gun accident (61 men, 2 women total 63) you see that the total deaths by firearms is 310 – more than double the chances of dying by medical misadventure! Add in the numbers of suicide by firearm (59 women, 991 men total 1050) you’ll see the total number of firearm-related deaths in Canada in that year was 1,360 – 8.8 times more than the deaths by medical misadventure.
Similar numbers are even repeated on Canadian pro-gun sites – for 1999 - the number of firearm-related deaths was 990, compared to 51 for “medical misadventure – a ratio of more than 19 to one!
If you do some research, you’ll find there are only 60,612 doctors in Canada (less than 1/10th the number reported in this email. According to the government, our reported number of accidental deaths by firearm is about 50 per year. This quote from that report is interesting, too: “Firearm suicides account for 80 percent of all firearm deaths in Canada.” Firearm deaths in Canada number around 900 per year. Having a gun statistically appears to incline its owner to suicide.
Given that only about 26% of Canadians own guns but more than 85% have their own physician and almost 100% have some source of medical aid (the benefits of a universal health care system!), it really tilts the statistics towards death by firearm as the greater threat (twice as many deaths by firearms yet only 26% of the population has one).
Sure, the absolute numbers of accidental deaths are lower than deaths by medical misadventure, but almost every Canadian has health care at some time in his or her life, so to get the equivalent per-capita ratio you have to multiply the number of gun deaths – accidental or not – by four (roughly: 26% of the population is a little more than a quarter). If we look at 1999, 37 accidental gun deaths should translate to 148 deaths compared to 51 by medical misadventure, so almost three times as many, per-capita.
And what exactly is “medical misadventure”? It’s not just mistakes by physicians: the figures include mistakes by ALL members of the medical profession, including nurses, pharmacists, therapists, health care providers, pharmacists, technicians, alternate medicines, etc.: A significant number of deaths by "medical misadventure" are attributed to errors in issuing or transcribing drug prescriptions.
So the comment that guns are safer than doctors is misleading and hyperbolic - but highly inflammatory for readers too lazy to confirm the facts for themselves!
The real killers of Canadians are circulatory diseases (1992: 76,000 a year, 1999: 78,000 ) and cancer (1992: 55,000 a year and 61,000 in 1999). A similar pattern emerges in US figures. It could be easily argued that the TV set is a bigger threat to us than guns because we sit in front of it, getting bombarded by electrons, eating junk food, instead of exercising, thus increasing the incidence of heart, respiratory and circulatory problems.
And let's not forget the killer weed: tobacco! Smoking is the cause of more than 47,000 deaths in Canada every year. according to this story reported on the CBC.
So before you click the "forward" button on the next piece of sensationalist email you get, take the time to make sure it's correct and you're not merely perpetuating another hoax, fraud, urban legend or lie. Be pro-active and smart about the Internet and email, not merely reactive and stupid.
That's the problem with email: it makes it so easy to continue the life cycle of garbage. And despite the power we have at our fingertips, few of us actually bother to check out the details or do the research on whether or not something is true. Which, of course, is why companies find itt so easy to mislead us with advertising.
Recipients are prone to forward this material because most of this tripe is sensational enough it's either exciting or interesting enough to make our normally mundane lives brighten a bit. So we help perpetuate the morass of urban legends and sometimes outright lies that zing around the Net daily.
Forwarding such emails without taking time to research them first and confirm their validity merely keep the garbage spewing online. Forwarding rumours, urban myths and misleading figures does no one any credit. It merely perpetuates the Net as a source of disinformation. Intelligent people can - and should - do better.
Here's what she was sending out. Keep in mind that this is mostly Internet slush, not fact (so do not copy this part and send it to friends because, as I explain below, it's garbage)...
Quote
>>Doctors!
1. The number of doctors in Canada is 700,000
2. Accidental deaths caused by physicians per year are 120,000
3. Accidental deaths per physician is 17.14%
Statistics courtesy of the Canadian Dept of Health & Human Services
-----
Guns:
1. The number of guns owned in Canada is 80,000,000 (yes that's 80million)
2. The number of accidental gun deaths per year, all age groups, is 1,500
3. The number of accidental deaths per gun owner is 0.001875%
Statistics courtesy of the RCMP
-----
So statistically, doctors are approximately 9,000 times more dangerous than gun owners.
Remember, guns don't kill people, doctors do.
FACT: NOT EVERYONE HAS A GUN, BUT ALMOST EVERYONE HAS AT LEAST ONE DOCTOR.
Please alert your friends to this alarming threat.
We must ban doctors before this gets completely out of hand!!!
Out of concern for the public at large, I have withheld statistics on lawyers for fear the shock would cause people to panic and seek medical attention. Then we would be in real trouble.
1. The number of doctors in Canada is 700,000
2. Accidental deaths caused by physicians per year are 120,000
3. Accidental deaths per physician is 17.14%
Statistics courtesy of the Canadian Dept of Health & Human Services
-----
Guns:
1. The number of guns owned in Canada is 80,000,000 (yes that's 80million)
2. The number of accidental gun deaths per year, all age groups, is 1,500
3. The number of accidental deaths per gun owner is 0.001875%
Statistics courtesy of the RCMP
-----
So statistically, doctors are approximately 9,000 times more dangerous than gun owners.
Remember, guns don't kill people, doctors do.
FACT: NOT EVERYONE HAS A GUN, BUT ALMOST EVERYONE HAS AT LEAST ONE DOCTOR.
Please alert your friends to this alarming threat.
We must ban doctors before this gets completely out of hand!!!
Out of concern for the public at large, I have withheld statistics on lawyers for fear the shock would cause people to panic and seek medical attention. Then we would be in real trouble.
Well, even a mathematically-challenged reader would see the number "80 million" guns in Canada and wonder. That's almost three guns for every man, woman and child in this country. Or for the 26 percent of Canadians who actually own guns, that means about ten guns per gun owner. We're crazy at times, but not nearly that bad!
Let's take a look at this piece and dissect it so we know exactly how bad it is... this is an exercise anyone can do, with very little effort and a few minutes on Google...
First, this email is not about Canadian statistics. That's pretty obvious if you think about it for any more than a nanosecond.
I dug online a bit and discovered (with a very simple search query) the text was taken from an obviously pro-NRA opinion column about AMERICAN physicians, and presented originally on what appears to be a right-wing-religious American political site. The original author was columnist Nathan Tabor. In it, he also writes, "It's time for Liberals to go out and buy a gun." That pretty much sums up the column, but that line never gets copied when his other figures are spread around. That's the insidious part of this trash: it's subliminal.
Simply changing the words America to Canada makes it ludicrous, but people are still passing it around. And the numbers presented are in many instances simply wrong.
Second, the US Census indicates there are 12 million people working in health care in the USA. The number of active physicians is 770,900, plus 40,800 doctors of osteopathy, for a total of 811,700 (plus 2.2 million nurses). That's 16 percent more than the columnist reported. (NB: the AMA has 690,000 physicians in its membership, but the latest CDC report lists 853,187 physicians - almost 22 per cent more than indicated).
If you check the National Safety Organization site you'll see that, yes, accidental deaths by firearms in the USA in 2002 were low (762) there were also 243 “undetermined” deaths by firearm for a potential total of 1,005. However, there were more than 17,000 deliberate cases of death through self-harm with firearms (more than half of all suicides in the USA), and more than 11,000 deaths through assault by firearm (more than half of all such deaths in the USA). So that means firearms are involved in more than 28,000 deaths in the USA every year.
See also Wrongful Diagnosis site for a list of deaths in the USA by reason, percentage of total deaths and per-capita. A little math shows the ratio of death by medical misadventure to firearms is really 3.39 to 1, not 9,000 to 1 as the writer of that bit of absurdity suggests.
And keep in mind that the huge majority of deaths by firearm were DELIBERATE, not accidental, as the majority of deaths by medical misadventure are. I would suggest the ratio of homicides by medical misadventure to be minuscule (less than 1%) compared to that of homicide by firearm (almost 17,000 per year!). Also keep in mind that 33.6 million Americans get admitted to hospital every year , too.
The National Institute of Medicine of the National Academies, by the way, has a much lower estimate in its figures for death by “medical misadventure” – as low as 44,000 - less than half that estimated in the other reports. It's still high, but it indicates not everyone agrees on how to classify the cause of death.
On the other hand, the writer reports 120,000 deaths in the USA by medical misadventure, while the actual figure is 98,000 (see Wrongful Diagnosis), a 22% inflation of the real numbers, and almost triple what the National Institute estimates (this form of death is also sometimes listed as "therapeutic" misadventure.)
According to a list of causes of death in Canada in 1992 there were 154 (74 men, 80 women) deaths by “medical misadventure” in Canada that year. If you add up the deaths by firearm in 1992 (178 men, 69 women – total 247) and gun accident (61 men, 2 women total 63) you see that the total deaths by firearms is 310 – more than double the chances of dying by medical misadventure! Add in the numbers of suicide by firearm (59 women, 991 men total 1050) you’ll see the total number of firearm-related deaths in Canada in that year was 1,360 – 8.8 times more than the deaths by medical misadventure.
Similar numbers are even repeated on Canadian pro-gun sites – for 1999 - the number of firearm-related deaths was 990, compared to 51 for “medical misadventure – a ratio of more than 19 to one!
If you do some research, you’ll find there are only 60,612 doctors in Canada (less than 1/10th the number reported in this email. According to the government, our reported number of accidental deaths by firearm is about 50 per year. This quote from that report is interesting, too: “Firearm suicides account for 80 percent of all firearm deaths in Canada.” Firearm deaths in Canada number around 900 per year. Having a gun statistically appears to incline its owner to suicide.
Given that only about 26% of Canadians own guns but more than 85% have their own physician and almost 100% have some source of medical aid (the benefits of a universal health care system!), it really tilts the statistics towards death by firearm as the greater threat (twice as many deaths by firearms yet only 26% of the population has one).
Sure, the absolute numbers of accidental deaths are lower than deaths by medical misadventure, but almost every Canadian has health care at some time in his or her life, so to get the equivalent per-capita ratio you have to multiply the number of gun deaths – accidental or not – by four (roughly: 26% of the population is a little more than a quarter). If we look at 1999, 37 accidental gun deaths should translate to 148 deaths compared to 51 by medical misadventure, so almost three times as many, per-capita.
And what exactly is “medical misadventure”? It’s not just mistakes by physicians: the figures include mistakes by ALL members of the medical profession, including nurses, pharmacists, therapists, health care providers, pharmacists, technicians, alternate medicines, etc.:
Quote
Not all medical mistakes are committed by physicians... registered nurses are responsible for more patient deaths and injuries each year than any other health-care professional... Possible explanations range from cost cutting resulting in overworked, and overwhelmed nurses, inadequately trained nurses, and mandatory overtime.
So the comment that guns are safer than doctors is misleading and hyperbolic - but highly inflammatory for readers too lazy to confirm the facts for themselves!
The real killers of Canadians are circulatory diseases (1992: 76,000 a year, 1999: 78,000 ) and cancer (1992: 55,000 a year and 61,000 in 1999). A similar pattern emerges in US figures. It could be easily argued that the TV set is a bigger threat to us than guns because we sit in front of it, getting bombarded by electrons, eating junk food, instead of exercising, thus increasing the incidence of heart, respiratory and circulatory problems.
And let's not forget the killer weed: tobacco! Smoking is the cause of more than 47,000 deaths in Canada every year.
Quote
Smoking was responsible for 22 per cent of all deaths in the country in 1998, and remains the leading preventable cause of death
So before you click the "forward" button on the next piece of sensationalist email you get, take the time to make sure it's correct and you're not merely perpetuating another hoax, fraud, urban legend or lie. Be pro-active and smart about the Internet and email, not merely reactive and stupid.
