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Twelve hours left to the regime change
25 October 2010
Only twelve hours left before the polls close in Collingwood and we see how the council changes for 2010-1014. I know the media are predicting a significant sea change - up to five new members of council elected say some. Others in town suggest a complete change of council, a sort of baby-out-with-the-bathwater election that sees seven new members come in.
Either would be cathartic, and reflect serious disaffection with the current mayor and council.
No surprises there (at least to readers of this blog), but it's hard to judge how the electorate will vote.
I always point to the lesson of David Peterson, then Liberal premier of Ontario facing a provincial election in mid-1990. All the polls showed him in the lead until about two weeks before the vote. Peterson shrugged that off as the voters just being "cranky." But the voters handed Peterson a ticket out of politics and put the NDP under Bob Rae into power.
That protest vote was entirely unexpected by the media and political pundits of the day. It even caught Rae by surprise.
Of course, that proved another unpopular government and paved the way for the Tories under Mike Harris to take control and the dark years of downloading and service cuts, but that's another topic. My point is that no one really knows how the voters will react until the ballots are counted.
It could go the other way entirely, and see most of the incumbents more firmly entrenched at the table, and troublemakers like me out of office. Personally, I think that isn't probable and I think we'll see at least three newcomers at the table, but anything is possible.
And as we know, it is highly unlikely we will even a majority of eligible voters in this town cast their ballots. Even in the most troubled and tumultuous times, all of the community angst over the current mayor and council doesn't translate into getting even one in two eligible people to vote.
While we can take some comfort that our turnout is higher than some communities, the sad fact is that we did not manage to galvanize even half the community to care enough to vote.*
If re-elected, I will try to address community engagement at election time and try to incorporate some of the initiatives other communities have taken, especially to get younger voters involved in the process.
This weekend I spoke to two people who hadn't voted yet, so I know there are still votes coming in. One person asked me when the ballots were being mailed - and I explained that they already had been, and then how to get ballots at tow hall. Difficult, however, for someone working all day long.
This election I've spoken to several people who never received a ballot in the mail - more than I recall making the same complaint last two elections. Not sure if that is a trend that identifies a problem or just statistical clustering. However, if I am re-elected, I plan to bring up several issues regarding voting and ballots early in the term, including enhanced or alternate voting methods (like Internet voting or advance polls for snowbirds). Have to bring that up, too, if I'm returned to the table.
~~~~~
* As of Saturday evening (Oct 23), 7,286 ballots had been received. According to the email I received, that represents 43% of the eligible voters. That means there must be 16,944.186 eligible voters! The number of eligible voters is never the same, and always involves a percentage of a voter. Very odd, that. The number of received ballots is up 4.5% up from the number received to date in the 2006 Municipal Election. But we're still quite short of seeing a turnout of 50% or more (we'd need around 8,500 ballots to achieve that).
Either would be cathartic, and reflect serious disaffection with the current mayor and council.
No surprises there (at least to readers of this blog), but it's hard to judge how the electorate will vote.
I always point to the lesson of David Peterson, then Liberal premier of Ontario facing a provincial election in mid-1990. All the polls showed him in the lead until about two weeks before the vote. Peterson shrugged that off as the voters just being "cranky." But the voters handed Peterson a ticket out of politics and put the NDP under Bob Rae into power.
That protest vote was entirely unexpected by the media and political pundits of the day. It even caught Rae by surprise.
Of course, that proved another unpopular government and paved the way for the Tories under Mike Harris to take control and the dark years of downloading and service cuts, but that's another topic. My point is that no one really knows how the voters will react until the ballots are counted.
It could go the other way entirely, and see most of the incumbents more firmly entrenched at the table, and troublemakers like me out of office. Personally, I think that isn't probable and I think we'll see at least three newcomers at the table, but anything is possible.
And as we know, it is highly unlikely we will even a majority of eligible voters in this town cast their ballots. Even in the most troubled and tumultuous times, all of the community angst over the current mayor and council doesn't translate into getting even one in two eligible people to vote.
While we can take some comfort that our turnout is higher than some communities, the sad fact is that we did not manage to galvanize even half the community to care enough to vote.*
If re-elected, I will try to address community engagement at election time and try to incorporate some of the initiatives other communities have taken, especially to get younger voters involved in the process.
This weekend I spoke to two people who hadn't voted yet, so I know there are still votes coming in. One person asked me when the ballots were being mailed - and I explained that they already had been, and then how to get ballots at tow hall. Difficult, however, for someone working all day long.
This election I've spoken to several people who never received a ballot in the mail - more than I recall making the same complaint last two elections. Not sure if that is a trend that identifies a problem or just statistical clustering. However, if I am re-elected, I plan to bring up several issues regarding voting and ballots early in the term, including enhanced or alternate voting methods (like Internet voting or advance polls for snowbirds). Have to bring that up, too, if I'm returned to the table.
~~~~~
* As of Saturday evening (Oct 23), 7,286 ballots had been received. According to the email I received, that represents 43% of the eligible voters. That means there must be 16,944.186 eligible voters! The number of eligible voters is never the same, and always involves a percentage of a voter. Very odd, that. The number of received ballots is up 4.5% up from the number received to date in the 2006 Municipal Election. But we're still quite short of seeing a turnout of 50% or more (we'd need around 8,500 ballots to achieve that).
